The debate around global warming continues to unfold and its causal powers, in particular the role it plays in occurrences such as droughts, are the subject of significant scientific research and public opinion. While current trends pertaining to the ever-rising temperatures of the planet and their implications in terms of increased drought risk are troubling, it is important to keep in mind that research into this matter is still in its infancy and many of the uncertainties remain. As such, it would be reckless to make one-sided assumptions and take part in sweeping statements as to whether global warming is truly causing droughts.
In order to properly analyze the issue, it is important to examine both sides of the argument while taking into consideration existing evidence. On the one hand, it is true that the rapidly escalating global temperatures, largely of human origin, are contributing profoundly to a drier, hotter and more unpredictable climate. What was once considered a regional phenomenon is now an international predicament, with droughts now taking place on a global scale. For instance, the five-year long Jordanian drought of the 1990s, the most extensive in the region in over 60 years, took place during a period of accelerated global warming. This led to serious crop monitoring losses and a decline in livestock, forcing thousands of families off the land.
Furthermore, numerous studies conducted by scientists from leading universities, including Oxford, Harvard and Stanford, have proved that the likelihood of major weather anomalies such as droughts escalated significantly when temperatures rose beyond 2-4°C, essentially doubling the likelihood of event occurrence in certain parts of the world. However, since the causes of droughts are often complicated and varied (including natural causes, improper resource management, etc.) it is hard to exclusively attribute drought formation to global warming, as there is often a multiple-fold increase in weather anomalies when such temperatures are reached.
On the other hand, some experts and researchers believe that global warming is not the primary cause of droughts, but instead complicates existing trends, which are largely the result of natural variations in the atmosphere. For example, the two-year 2008-2009 drought in Australia, considered the most severe in the region in the last 100 years, occurred during a naturally occurring ‘low-index’ phase. In this regard, global warming is largely seen as a contributing factor but not the driving force of droughts, with some scientist opining that without the rising temperatures, the actual impacts of such events would be relatively minor.
As previously stated, the discourse around global warming is still in its early stages and an accurate assessment of the situation can only be obtained when longer-term studies, taken over several years, are conducted. The results can be used to further examine the causal powers of global warming on weather events and provide new evidence that conclusively proves or disproves its direct involvement in droughts. Unfortunately, such research requires time and resources, both of which are limited at the moment, making reliable conclusions about potential cause and effects relationships hard to form.
On the whole, the direct effect of global warming on the occurrence of droughts remains uncertain. Given the scientific uncertainty and the complex nuances surrounding this issue, engaging in future-orientated solutions is of paramount importance. Policymakers should implement strategies aimed at curbing global warming and its many deleterious implications and environmentalists should push for measures that enhance sound land and water management practices and combat unsustainable agricultural practices, such as the uncontrolled over-exploitation of natural resources. Only then can the current and future risks posed by global warming and its potential drought-causing capabilities be properly addressed.