When debating the impacts of global warming, the consensus is that the sooner we act, the better. But it’s important to first understand what global warming is, how it will occur and when it is likely to occur. For this reason, it’s worth taking a closer look at the evidence we have and the potential implications.
At its simplest, global warming is the gradual increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere caused by emissions of greenhouse gases. As our planet warms, this broadly affects the climate, resulting in more severe heat waves, more intense storms, and rising sea levels around the world. This in turn has both positive and negative impacts on ecosystems, crop production, the insurance business and many other industries.
Scientists believe global warming will occur over the course of many years, beginning with a period of gradual increase followed by faster temperature rises. This is because as the temperature rises, so do the greenhouse gas emissions – a positive feedback loop which means global warming is likely to accelerate. However, it is not possible to be exact with the time frame as the rate of warming is largely dependent on what measures we take now to limit global warming.
The main culprits of global warming are carbon dioxide and methane, both of which are driven by human activities like burning fossil fuels and hydrofluorocarbons from cooling and refrigeration. And, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), even if we stopped emitting all carbon dioxide immediately, global warming could still occur. This is because the thermal inertia of our climate system means temperatures will continue to rise even as emissions are reduced.
This presents us with two potential scenarios. In the short term, we can take proactive measures to reduce emissions, such as investing in renewable energy sources and other low emissions technologies. This will slow down the rate of global warming and reduce the potential impacts. In the long term, we should be prepared to adapt to climate change, whether that means developing better flood defences or adjusting crop varieties to higher temperatures.
Ultimately, the when and how of global warming boils down to a simple question with a complicated answer: what do we as individuals, companies, organisations and governments do right now to reduce our emissions? If world leaders can commit to ambitious commitments that contain global warming to a manageable level, then global warming may be held off for many years. If not, then we must be prepared to face the consequences of our own inaction.
Ultimately, it is our choice whether we can manage global warming or be subject to its repercussions. We must act quickly and intelligently and put in place policies that actively reduce emissions, or risk being overwhelmed by the impacts of a rapidly changing climate.
