International climate change negotiations have become a difficult and ongoing process as governments, global institutions, and organizations seek to understand when global warming will start and how to best mitigate its impacts. Although it is widely accepted that the Earth’s temperature is increasing as a result of human activities and emissions, there is still a debate surrounding when global warming will actually start and the magnitude of this phenomenon’s effects.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified five elements associated with the onset of global warming: the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, the global mean temperature anomaly, the ocean heat content, sea-level rise, and glacier-ice melt. Based on these climate indicators, the IPCC has reported that the average global temperature has risen by 1.1°C since pre-industrial levels, and that this trend is forecast to continue throughout the 21st century. The consequences of this trend includes higher air and ocean temperatures, extreme climate events, ocean acidification, reduced snow and ice cover, and sea level-rise.
While some consensus around the issue of global warming exists, the difficulty of predicting when this phenomenon might reach a tipping point is widely discussed among scientists, governments, and the general public. On one hand, some scientists have argued that environmental conditions could reach a tipping point as early as 2030, resulting in potentially catastrophic consequences for humanity. On the other hand, others have suggested that the tipping point could be reached later on in the century; thus, allowing for greater time for governments to mitigate the effects of global warming through authorized international agreements, such as the Paris Agreement, and effective environmental policies.
One important factor to consider is the human factor. The election of government officials and leaders who embrace environmental policies and prioritize climate change is key to achieving progress in the global warming battle. If governments, institutions, and individuals commit to stringent policies, are willing to address the immediate and long-term consequences of global warming, then the onset of global warming may be delayed.
Ultimately, the answer to when global warming will start remains elusive. While there is consensus that global warming is indeed happening and its detrimental impacts can already be experienced, the exact timeframe is yet to be determined. Scrutinizing the contributions of human activities to global warming, identifying which measures are needed to contain them, and investing in sustainable infrastructures and renewable energy sources are some of the ways that countries and their citizens can prepare for the future.
